TODAY'S EVENTS

• 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 205k vs. 203k prior)

• 8:30 AM ET: US Trade Balance July (expected -$71.2B)

• 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI

• 12:30 PM ET: Fed Waller Speech

NFP TOMORROW = THE HEADLINE

• Friday 8:30 AM: August Nonfarm Payrolls (CRITICAL)

• Consensus: 58k | July was -23k (miss)

• Unemployment: Expected 4.1% (hold)

• Wage growth: 3.0% YoY (cooling)

• Market impact: Low conviction moves today. Real action after Friday.

NVDA / TECH BACKDROP

• NVDA reported Aug 26: $96.2B revenue (beat $92.3B), EPS $2.22 (beat $2.09)

• Stock jumped 9%, now -1.07% premarket (profit-taking)

• Guidance: 70% FY28 growth (vs. 45% Street consensus) | Memory cost headwind on gross margin

• NQ's weak bounce reflects tech sector caution despite beat

MARKET TONE

• Light volume, bid support from oil selloff + bond yields down

• No conviction moves before NFP Friday

• Double Break longs: Valid on VWAP + opening range breaks above support

• Double Break shorts: Valid off 29,368 or Friday high if 29K fails

• Position sizing: Reflects macro risk. This is NOT a conviction day.

QUICK SETUP

• NQ holds 29K → 29,368 is resistance → Test Friday high 29,811

• ES holds 7,680 → Eyes 7,750+

• If support fails → No lower targets until after NFP

• Oil ease supporting, but positioning is cautious